TA visar att vi är inne i våg 5 nu (den sista vågen på nedsidan). Om botten var satt förra året så är vi inne i våg 2 i den första vågen. Och ett nytt rally kommer triggas när 200-210 bryts i HUI (våg 3).

HUI Gold Bugs

Lite kort om vågorna (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle)

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in theoptions market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to “get in on a pullback” will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three’s midpoint, “the crowd” will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

För att summera kort så räcker det enbart med att HUI tar sig över 200-210 för att trigga ett nytt PM-rally. Det korta rallyt som vi fick uppleva förra året var våg nummer 4 och nedgången till en nytt low var 5. Om vi nu skulle få ett ny low nästa vecka så kommer det att fördröja scenariot. Men faktum är att vi är väldigt nära en botten (om den inte är nådd redan). Dollarindexet nådde även 100 förra veckan, kommer förmodligen bli vinst hemtagningar och rekyl i dollarn (finns dock inga tekniska tecken på att de kommer krascha där än).